Last Sunday prior to the televised Eagles-Steelers game I hosted the second annual UC Alumni & Friends fantasy football league draft. As last year, we did a standard auction draft among 6 people. In later discussion, numbers within parenthesis are my estimated values for players, while those in square brackets are what they actually sold for.
I was committed to purchasing primarily “value” picks — those that I could buy for less than what I predicted their value to be. Unlike last year, when I ended up getting lots of bargain running backs but had little left to spend on other positions, I intended to temper this slightly by my needs. I determined my estimated values myself, based on the general assumption that 60% of budget should go to running backs, 25% to receivers and tight ends, and 15% to quarterbacks, defenses, and kickers; that most people would fill their flex spot and two bench spots with running backs, two other bench spots with receivers, and the remaining one with a quarterback; and that “starters” — the top 6 or 12 players at a position — would go for a premium. I believe a few other participants made decisions based on a published list of average values for a 12-person draft, which would have significantly higher prices than players should have gone for in our smaller league.
The draft started out with about 15 players that sold for higher prices than I predicted, so I didn’t take any of them. These picks included such fantasy stars as LaDanian Tomlinson ($73) [$90], Steven Jackson ($62) [$72], and Larry Johnson ($57) [$60]. As the pool of great running backs was being quickly depleted, I had to make a stand and take Rudi Johnson ($45) [$37], whom I did get at a pretty good value. My next few picks were receivers that I got for more or less their expected value: T. J. Houshmandzadeh ($15) [$13], Larry Fitzgerald ($17) [$19], and Terrell Owens ($23) [$19]. It hurts to have the hated Owens on my team, but I couldn’t let him go for less than that.
Along the way I picked up a few other decent running backs: Willie Parker ($40) [$39], Maurice Jones-Drew ($23) [$5], and my biggest value Travis Henry ($33) [$10]. Of course, we’ll see if his injury turns out to be more serious than expected. High-quality quarterbacks such as Peyton Manning ($34) [$40], Drew Brees ($23) [$23], Donovan McNabb ($22) [$22], and Tom Brady ($22) [$33] kept going for prices I wasn’t willing to outbid, but I was quickly finding the pool of good options depleted. I ended up taking Carson Palmer ($26) [$26]. He’s a great QB and I got him for expected value, but I don’t like having 3 members of the Cincinnati Bengals on my starting roster.
By this time my coffers were starting to get seriously depleted, and there were still a few good players on the board. Necessity had forced me to reach for a few players early, and I had now allowed my arch-nemesis Ryan Michaluk to control the largest stack of money as the draft winded down. While I was able to pick up a few other great values such as Brandon Jacobs ($15) [$3], he was able to outbid me on some really great and under-valued players, most notably Joseph Addai ($50) [$21] and Laurence Maroney ($40) [$9]. I’m going to be angry at myself about those two for quite a while.
I think Ryan drafted best by far, managing to acquire the undisputed best QB (Peyton Manning), 3 of the top 8 RBs (Joseph Addai, Ronnie Brown, and Laurence Maroney), the top TE (Antonio Gates), 3 of the top 4 WRs (Steve Smith, Chad Johnson, and Torry Holt), and either the best or second-best defense (Baltimore). How he managed this feat, I have no idea. Worst draft blunder? Andy Cliff wasted $55 on QBs (McNabb, Brees, Hasselbeck), and was the first person out of money. As for myself, I’d say I did quite average. There are lots of high risk/reward players on my roster: Jones-Drew will be great if (as expected) Fred Taylor gets injured or benched; Brandon Jacobs will be great if Coughlin decides to use him as a featured back rather than part of a committee with Reuben Droughns; Travis Henry will be great if he gets healthy quickly and Mike Shanahan decides not to be a jerk.