The Blogg

May 29, 2008

Philadelphia Eagles Roster

Filed under: Personal — chadhogg @ 10:30 am

Below is the 53 man roster that I hope the Eagles keep, based on what I know about and expect from players now. I am sure it will change somewhat after training camp and the preseason. What makes me qualified to discuss this? Nothing, but this is the sort of thing I think about for hours while trying to fall asleep every night.

Defensive Tackle (4): Brodrick Bunkley, Mike Patterson, Trevor Laws, LaJuan Ramsey, Montae Reagor, Jeremy Clark. Bunkley and Patterson are no Pat & Kevin Williams, but they were a very solid starting tandem last year. None of the backups last year played particularly well, so the nod goes to the rookie and Ramsey, who at least has been in the system for a number of years. Maybe we should keep 5 here, but I need the space elsewhere.

Defensive End (5): Trent Cole, Juqua Parker, Chris Clemons, Victor Abiamiri, Darren Howard, Jerome McDougle, A. J. Schable, Bryan Smith, Xzavie Jackson. Trent Cole is a bona fide superstar, and he should be on the field for as many snaps as he can take without getting worn down. I expect Parker (nee Thomas), Clemons, and Abiamiri to rotate fairly evenly, but for now Parker keeps his starting role. The fifth spot is wide open; I know little about the rookies, and McDougle really needs to show he can overcome the remarkable bad luck he has to warrant a spot. For now Howard stays, even though he has not come even close to expectations, because of his ability to play tackle as well. Hopefully one of the young players will show enough promise to push him off.

Linebacker (5): Omar Gaither, Chris Gocong, Stewart Bradley, Akeem Jordan, Pago Togafau, Rocky Boiman, Andy Studebaker, Joe Mays, Justin Roland, Mark Staffieri, Gary Butler. At the end of last year we saw Bradley in the middle, Gaither on the weak side, and Gocong on the strong side, and I think that should be the starting lineup. The other young returning players hold onto the remaining three spots for now on the basis of experience, but could easily be displaced if one of the rookies looks good. We really should have six linebackers, but I had to make space somewhere.

Safety (5): Brian Dawkins, Quintin Mikell, Sean Considine, J. R. Reed, Quintin Demps, Marcus Paschal. Unfortunately, I think we need to keep 5 here. If Dawkins can return to the way he played two years ago then he is still one of the very best in the business, but the team needs to be prepared to pull him if he plays like last year. Mikell has been a special teams star for years, and looked great when pressed into both the free and strong safety spots last year. Considine is never going to be a great player, but he has the experience to step in and play if necessary. Reed is a big special teams contributor, and played well on defense despite having been out of football. Demps looks good on paper, but if he doesn’t work out Paschal is serviceable.

Cornerback (5): Asante Samuel, Lito Sheppard, Sheldon Brown, Nick Graham, Joselio Hanson, Tanard Davis, Kyle Arrington, Therrian Fontenot, Jack Ikegwuonu. I love the fact that we still have Sheppard around. A solid third corner is now essential in this league, and we haven’t had one since Roderick Hood left. Samuel, Sheppard, and Brown should all be on the field more often than they are not. I am not a big fan of Graham or Hanson, so any of the rookies could move past them with a good camp. Ikegwuonu will be on the roster in spirit, as he recuperates on IR for the year.

Center (2): Jamaal Jackson, Nick Cole. No real competition here.

Guard (4): Shawn Andrews, Todd Herremans, Max Jean-Gilles, Scott Young, Stefan Rodgers, Mike McGlynn, Mike Gibson. I really like Andrews, Herremans, and Jean-Gilles, but Young may be replaceable. If there are serious thoughts about moving Andrews and Herremans out to tackle after this year, we really need to see that configuration in a game situation.

Tackle (4): Jon Runyan, William Thomas, Winston Justice, King Dunlap, Franklin Dunbar. This is not a good situation. Runyan and Thomas are both studs, but it would be foolish to think that either one can continue playing at this level for very many more years. Knowing the Eagles front office, I doubt either one gets a new long-term contract after this year. Thus, it is imperative that we found out what we have to replace them with. I’m giving Justice a pass on his horrible showing in East Rutherford last year because, frankly, we do not seem to have much choice. Hopefully it was an aberration.

Tight End (3) L. J. Smith, Brent Celek, Kris Wilson, Matt Schobel. Smith has to show that he can still play after last year’s injury fest, but I think he will. If we ignore last year, he is right on the cusp of being a top-10 TE, and with our passing attack so dependent on the position we cannot afford to let him go unless we find other serious talent. That said, I loved everything I saw about Celek last year. In his second season I am expecting big things. I don’t know much about Wilson, but he seems to have done well in the shadow of Tony Gonzalez at Kansas City. Schobel has been a good backup here for several years, but he is never going to be better than that.

Wide Receiver (5) Reggie Brown, Kevin Curtis, DeSean Jackson, Jason Avant, Hank Baskett, Greg Lewis, Jamal Jones, Michael Gasperson, Bill Sampy, Bam Childress, Terrell Golden, Frantz Hardy, Shaheer, McBride. I think we can afford to only keep five wideouts because running backs Westbrook and Booker will both be lining up as receivers fairly often. Brown and Curtis remain the starters, but I would like to see Curtis playing more of the slot position in 3-receiver sets. I may be giving Jackson too much credit for someone who has not even practiced in pads yet, but he is going to be here as a punt returner at a minimum. Avant needs to get a few more opportunities, and we need to use Baskett as a big target in the red zone. I think Greg Lewis is a much better third receiver than most people give him credit for, but he has been eclipsed by younger players who are just as talented.

Quarterback (3) Donovan McNabb, Kevin Kolb, A. J. Feeley, Casey Hanson. I predict that McNabb is elite again this year, although he is never again going to be as good as he was a few seasons ago. Feeley knows the offense and is a serviceable backup, but I hope Kolb proves to be a better choice at this point. You simply cannot throw as many interceptions as Feeley did during his playing time last year and have any long-term success.

Fullback (1) Jason Davis, Dan Klecko, Jed Collins. I am a bit worried about this position. For now Davis gets the spot, but if he can get acclimated to his new position, Klecko may be better at moving the pile from the 2-yard line, where this system most depends on a fullback. Honestly, I would almost rather we take no fullback and work with more sets that utilize two halfbacks.

Running Back (4) Brian Westbrook, Correll Buckhalter, Lorenzo Booker, Tony Hunt, Ryan Moats. Westbrook is a stud, but he could be even more productive if he did not touch the ball so much. Buckhalter played too well last year to not get at least as many carries this season. I like the addition of Booker because Westbrook has the skill set of a third-down back but is too talented to not use on first and second down. Now we have another prototypical third-down back who can actually play mostly on third downs. Tony Hunt did not get many chances last year, but it is good to have another “pound it through the line” guy behind Buckhalter. For reasons stated above, I would rather have him on the team than a sixth receiver. Moats has shown the ability to break some long runs, but most of the time he seems to go down for little or no gain.

Placekicker (1) David Akers. Akers did not have a good 2007-2008 season, but he will hopefully be back to form. If not, the Eagles need to seriously think about drafting someone next year who can take on the job for the next decade.

Punter (1) Sav Rocca, Richmond McGee. With a bit more NFL experience, Rocca should be more consistent this year.

Long Snapper (1) Jon Dorenbos. It would be really, really nice to have someone who is filling another role do this, but apparently none of our backups have the necessary skills. Oh, for a return of Mike Bartrum.

May 25, 2008

Eysenck Personality Questionnaire

Filed under: Personal — chadhogg @ 2:43 am

While following a fairly random walk through Wikipedia last night I came across the Eysenck Personality Questionnaire, a supposed psychological testing instrument. I am not sure such things are useful on their own, but I do find it interesting to see where I fall compared to the population norm. Also, I find processes that attempt to distill abstract concepts down to simple mathematical models, and have done some research in mining such data for interesting patterns.

Since I was unable to sleep, I decided to take the test myself. My results are summarized below. I’ve omitted the Sexuality subsection, not for the sake of my own privacy, but because I suspect most of you would rather not know. The “norm” response is represented by a pair of “N”s, while my score is an “X”. Some of my scores are not integers. In those cases, I have rounded toward the norm. It is not clear whether the norm is an arithmetic mean, geometric mean, median, or mode, or whether it is taken from some results published by Eysenck and Barrett or calculated based on the population that has taken this version of the test. I am not sure why they are not all scaled to the same range. Most of my scores are very close to the norm, but I have made a few comments on those that were extreme or surprising.

If you are someone I know and feel like sharing, I’d be interested to see your results as well. The version of the questionnaire that I took can be found here. Warning #1: The site hosting the test appears to be a “self-actualization” resource of dubious quality, rather than an academic or clinical resource. I assume it is accurately reproducing the test, but have nothing with which to compare it and have not explored the rest of the site. Warning #2: The questionnaire is quite long. I think it took me around an hour and a half to complete.

Introversion / Extraversion
Inactivity |******X*********NN**************| Activity
  I knew I was lazy, but this is impressive!
Unsociability |*********X******NN**************| Sociability
  Sounds about right.
Carefulness |***********X***NN***************| Risk-Taking
Control |**********X******NN*************| Impulsiveness
Inhibition |***********NN*X*****************| Expressiveness
Practicality |*****************NN*X***********| Reflectiveness
Irresponsibility |**************NN*X**************| Responsibility
Emotional Stability
Inferiority |*****************XNN************| Self-Esteem
Depressed |******************NN****X*******| Happy
  I would not generally consider myself an unusually happy person. Now I feel bad for the norm!
Calm |**************XNN***************| Anxiety
Casual |**********NN*X******************| Obsessive
Dependency |***************NN***X***********| Independence
Sense Of Health |*******X*NN***************| Hypochondria
Freedom From Guilt |********X***NN******************| Guilt
Mastery / Sympathy
Peacefulness |********X***NN******************| Aggressiveness
Submissiveness |***************XN***************| Assertiveness
Unambitiousness |***********X**NN****************| Ambitiousness
Empathy |*********X**NN******************| Manipulation
Unadventurous |*********X*****NN***************| Sensation-Seeking
Flexibility |***************XN***************| Dogmatism
Femininity |*************NN********X********| Masculinity
  It is not clear what exactly this is trying to measure, but it would be interesting to see gender-specific norms.
Political Attitudes
Restrictive |***************NN*X**************| Permissive
Non-discriminating |****X******NN**************| Racist
  This label is a bit off, as the questions were as much about sexism, nationalism, etc as racism. You can tell this was designed 20 years ago, because I very much doubt I am that far from the norm in today’s general population.
Non-believer |***********X***NN**********| Believer
  Could have fooled me. Actually, it appears to be more about gullibility than faith.
Capitalist |***********XN*************| Socialist
Regimentation |***********NN******X********| Libertarianism
Progressive |**********X*****NN**********| Reactionary
Militarism |**********NN*****X********| Pacifism

May 24, 2008

Turnpike Lease

Filed under: Politics — chadhogg @ 1:08 am

In response to funding shortages and transportation infrastructure in need of repair, Pennsylvania Governor Ed Rendell has been pushing a plan to lease the PA turnpike to a private corporation. The state recently announced that the highest bidder has offered an up-front payment of $12.8 billion, which would be invested to produce a projected $1.1 billion in interest yearly. A more thorough summary is available here.

The Libertarian in me wants to applaud this idea. In general, taking what has been a government responsibility and opening it to the competitive market is good for everyone involved. In this specific case, however, I think it would be a mistake. Ownership and maintenance of roads is one of the few “public goods” where the government can legitimately provide a better service than private enterprise. They have been doing a reasonable job of it for more than 50 years, and the thought of multiple competing road systems and competing companies squabbling over the intersections between them is frightening.

If someone is willing to pay $12.8 billion dollars for the right to operate the Turnpike for 75 years, they must think that they can extract significantly more than that in profit during that time. If the state is willing to enter such a contract, then Rendell and other officials must think that running the Turnpike themselves would not produce those profits, or they would simply borrow the money needed now and pay it back with Turnpike revenues. This supports my general belief that large governmental organizations are inherently corrupt and wasteful. Based on that, accepting this bid seems wise. What bothers me is that the state *should* be able to do just as well. Why can’t we charge the same toll rates that the private company was, throw out bad management, and squeeze out cost inefficiencies ourselves, and thus retain all of the profits beyond $12.8 billion for tax relief? I am not sure where this angry optimism is coming from, but I suspect it will not last long.

On another note, using revenue from tolls on one road to fund the upkeep of all other free roads in the state is not exactly an ideal model. Essentially, people who live in the southern part of the state pay to keep Rt. 80 in good order for those citizens in the northern part of the state, who contribute nothing. (This is a simplification, of course. PennDOT also receives funding from taxes, federal grants, etc.) A competing plan already approved by Pennsylvania legislatures but requiring federal approval would convert Rt. 80 to a toll road as well. This would be a better option, but still not ideal. Charging tolls for the use of a road makes sense for one purpose only: to finance the construction of that road itself. After that debt has been paid, continuing to charge motorists for the use of that road is unreasonable.

There is a reasonable, equitable, and simple source of funding for transit infrastructure, one that the state legislature has already rejected because it would be politically infeasible: an increase in the state’s excise tax on gasoline and other automobile fuels. For the much more than 99% of road users who drive a vehicle with an internal combustion engine, the amount of fuel purchased is roughly proportional to the value that person gains from the availability of safe roadways. Not only would such a tax on fuel mean that transportation services are paid for by people who actually use them, it would provide another small incentive for people to purchase fuel-efficient vehicles and to drive responsibly. The only significant difficulty is that tractor trailers cause a very large proportion of damage to roadways, but probably have tanks large enough to travel from Maryland to New York without stopping for a fill-up. I am not sure how this should be taken into account, but I am sure it could be. The reason the state has not elected to do this has nothing to do with its actual drawbacks, of course. It is because lawmakers do not want to have to explain to their constituents that they are partly responsible for high gasoline prices, even if it would be the best plan.

By the way, let’s do a quick back-of-the-envelope calculation of what such a tax would have to be. My car has a 10-gallon tank, which I need to fill about 3 times a month or roughly 40 times per year for a total consumption of 400 gallons. Some people need to drive much more than I and others much less, but for the purposes of this calculation it should be a decent estimate of the average. Pennsylvania has an estimated population of around 12 million people. Supposing that 30% of those people are children and another 20% are adults who do not regularly drive, we have 6 million drivers. If they, on average, consume as much gasoline as I do, that would be total sales of 2.4 billion gallons. To generate $1.1 billion dollars would thus require a tax of less than a cent on each gallon. Assuming that this increase in price would encourage some people to reduce consumption or drive out of state to make fuel purchases, it might require a very liberal estimate of 2 cents per gallon. By the same estimates above, this would cost the average driver $8 each year. I have the same aversion to higher prices as anyone else, but if this removed the far more than $8 I pay each year in Turnpike tolls it would be good for my bank account. Strangely, the tax proposal killed by the legislature was for 11 cents per gallon, indicating that my estimation has serious flaws. Even at $44 each year it would be no worse than my current costs.

May 23, 2008

Obama’s Veep

Filed under: Politics — chadhogg @ 6:21 pm

There has been a lot of noise in the media recently about the possibility of Sen. Barack Obama asking Sen. Hillary Clinton to campaign with him as vice president. The “dream ticket” has been mentioned before, but never with any real thought that it could happen; there has been too much vitriol between the candidates. Recently, however, commentators are almost making it sound likely.

If this were to happen, I would be extremely disappointed, perhaps so much so as to join McCain’s camp. Senator Clinton is the embodiment of everything wrong with the system, and everything that I thought Obama was campaigning against. The Obama campaign has been based on the belief that it is possible to be elected and to run the country without political patronage or back-room deals, that government can be for and of the people rather than the corporations, unions, and lobbyists, and that voters can be made to care more about issues than smoke and mirrors. To welcome Clinton into his administration would be a betrayal, an admission that either these things are not possible, or worse yet that they are not desirable. If there is any justice in this world, this possibility exists only in the minds of pundits looking for a story.

(Personally, I am still clinging to hope for the nearly impossible Obama-Paul ticket.)

Book Review: Catch-22

Filed under: Books — chadhogg @ 5:14 pm

Few genres are more enjoyable to read than absurdist satire, and Catch-22 may be the finest example of the genre that I have ever read. It takes only three pages to reach the first seeming contradiction that, after a bit of thought, makes perfect sense: “The Texan turned out to be good-natured, gregarious and likable. In three days no one could stand him.” The entire text is filled with such gems. My favorite is a paragraph from chapter 9, describing Major Major’s father. Regardless of your stance on farm subsidies, it is impossible to deny the absurdity and hypocrisy exposed by this brief description:

Major Major’s father was a sober God-fearing man whose idea of a good joke was to lie about his age. He was a long-limbed farmer, a God-fearing, freedom-loving, law-abiding rugged individualist who held that federal aid to anyone but farmers was creeping socialism. He advocated thrift and hard work and disapproved of loose women who turned him down. His specialty was alfalfa, and he made a good thing out of not growing any. The government paid him very well for every bushel of alfalfa he did not grow. The more alfalfa he did not grow, the more money the government gave him, and he spent every penny he didn’t earn on new land to increase the amount of alfalfa he did not produce. Major Major’s father worked without rest a not growing alfalfa. On long winter evenings he remained indoors and did not mend harness, and he sprang out of bed at the crack of noon every day just to make sure that the chores would not be done. He invested in land wisely and soon was not growing more alfalfa than any other man in the county. Neighbors sought him out for advice on all subjects, for he had made much money and was therefore wise. “As ye sow, so shall ye reap,” he counseled one and all, and everyone said, “Amen”.

It is interesting that Heller chooses World War II, which of the armed conflicts in which the United States has been involved is clearly the most just and necessary, to demonstrate the senselessness of war for all who are involved. I have never served in the military, but it is not necessary to have done so in order to recognize the people and situations in Catch-22. While the novel centers around an Army Air Force squadron, the insights it provides are as much about bureaucracy and human nature as they are war. Generals and colonels who consider their mission to rise in authority or to gain publicity while caring little for the orthogonal mission of winning the war could as easily be company executives or government officials who rally their subordinates to the task of improving their lives without regard for the objectives of the organization that employs them. There is a part of mercenary merchant Milo Minderbinder in every selfish charlatan, from a back-stabbing friend to Kenneth Lay and Jeffrey Skilling. The catch 22 itself should be roughly familiar to anyone who has had significant interaction with any large entity.

As I was reading through the novel I suffered a bit of fatigue because, while each chapter is brilliant, they are all brilliant in the same way and for the same reasons. At the time, I was prepared to suggest that large portions of the text be excised. After completing it, however, I find that very little occurs that is not important later. Given the opportunity to edit the book down, I doubt I would be able to remove more than ten percent of the text without significantly degrading the impact of the work as a whole. I have been previously critical of literature in which place and time flow continuously back and forward through sections of the book. This is certainly true of Catch-22, but in this case it is not a significant hardship. This is because very little of the novel is plot-based. Rather, each short chapter illustrates an unusual character or situation, sometimes from a different perspective than previously. Thus, the chronology is not terribly important, and Heller is free to deliberately reveal information in whatever order suits it best.

Biting satire is only effective when it is pointing out something truly horrible. Was is indeed, as Sherman stated, hell, but Catch-22 extends beyond war to all human suffering. The poignant 29th chapter briefly abandons humor to enumerate a litany of inexcusable, and only peripherally war-related, conditions. Yossarian encounters extreme poverty, illness, rape, violence against animals and children, police brutality, theft from the elderly, murder, and finally injustice while wandering through the streets of Rome. I must include another quote here to demonstrate the depravity Heller is trying to convey.

… Almost on cue, a nursing mother padded past holding an infant in black rags, and Yossarian wanted to smash her too, because she reminded him of the barefoot boy in the thin shirt and thin, tattered trousers and of all the shivering, stupefying misery in a world that never yet had provided enough heat and food and justice for all but an ingenious and unscrupulous handful. What a lousy earth! He wondered how many people were destitute that same night even in his own prosperous country, how many homes were shanties, how many husbands were drunk and wives socked, and how many children were bullied, abused or abandoned. How many families hungered for food they could not afford to buy? How many hearts were broken? How many suicides would take place that same night, how many people would go insane? How many cockroaches and landlords would triumph? How many winners were losers, successes failures, rich men poor men? How many wise guys were stupid? How many happy endings were unhappy endings? How many honest men were liars, brave men cowards, loyal men traitors, how many sainted men were corrupt, how many people in positions of trust had sold their souls to blackguards for petty cash, how many had never had souls? … The night was filled with horrors, and he thought he knew how Christ must have felt as he walked through the dark world, like a psychiatrist through a ward full of nuts, like a victim through a prison full of thieves.

What a masterful account of the dark night of the soul, befitting the near-end of a masterpiece. Yossarian lives!

May 17, 2008

The Gay Marriage “Debate”

Filed under: Politics — chadhogg @ 1:38 am

The California Supreme Court ruled yesterday to strike down a legislative ban on gay marriage, a move that will surely further inflame recent attempts to pass a court-proofed Constitutional amendment banning the same. I’m not a big fan of justices setting public policy, but I think they made the right call here. Both long-standing statutes and case law forbid the government from engaging in discrimination on the basis of sexual orientation, and the challenged law is clearly a violation.

While I do not agree with them, I do understand some of the reasons people have for trying to pass such laws. For many people, myself included, marriage is a sacred, spiritual relationship between themselves, their spouse, and their God. To apply the term indiscriminately can be seen as an affront to what is the most important commitment a person makes. No one with sufficient love and wisdom would consider this a valid reason to oppress someone else, but there are sadly very many people lacking those characteristics.

Of course, it would be possible to find a solution that satisfies nearly everyone. The problem is that marriage has two separate but intertwined meanings in our culture – one socio-religious, and one legal. Because the socio-religious institution of marriage is far older than the corresponding civil concept, the government should be getting out of the business of marriage immediately. Thus, marriage would be a matter between spouses and the socio-religious groups to which they belong. Anyone who wishes to consider themselves married would be free to do so, but no one else would be required to recognize their marriage.

At the same time, the government would institute a new system of civil unions. Any two consenting adults would have the option of entering a civil union, which would come with all of the legal rights, responsibilities, and privileges currently associated with marriage. All persons currently married would be automatically considered to be in a civil union, but couples would be free to enter into a civil union without being married or vice versa. (In practice, I suspect that most religious organizations would refuse to marry people who did not intend to enter the civil contract.) Of course, none of this will ever happen because it is both too drastic and too reasonable for either of the major political parties to seriously consider it.

What about other forms of relationships? I have never quite understood why polygamy is illegal. Recent events suggest that polygamous societies frequently also practice forced marriages and sexual abuse of children, but these activities are already themselves illegal. A largely polygynous society will result in a large underclass of men with no realistic chance to reproduce, which I can only imagine would result in a rather unstable society, but if only a small percentage of Americans practiced polygamy it would not be a problem. Is it possible that bigamy laws are solely a result of discrimination against Mormons?

I have little doubt that there are groups of three or more people who legitimately love each other in much the same way as a husband and wife in a traditional marriage, and it seems to me that the only reason there are not protests against bigamy laws is that polygamists are fewer in number than gays. If the government got out of the marriage business, it would be natural to extend the protection of civil unions to groups of three or more persons that wish to enter one. This would not be trivial, because many of the current legal advantages of marriage are designed for two partners, but I am sure they could be appropriately adjusted.

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