Although no one cares, I’ve been blogging about my fantasy football drafts over the previous two years, so I suppose I should do the same. Fellow pigskin prognosticator Ryan has already provided his analysis of the first draft here
In the long-running HT Fantasy Football league, I pulled draft position 8/12 this year. (12/12 in 2007, 9/12 in 2006, 6/10 in 2005. Seriously?) The first five picks went with the undisputed best 5 RBs in the game, then Tom Brady, then the player I was hoping to get, Marion Barber. I could have taken Marshawn Lynch, but the Bills are just so bad. I could have taken Frank Gore, but I’ve never been a fan. Last year he had a dismal 6 TDs, and almost as many fumbles (4). I could have taken Ryan Grant (great player, but the contract holdout scares me) or Clinton Portis (can he stay healthy?). Seeing none of those options palatable, I bit the bullet and selected wide receiver Randy Moss. Sure, he is coming off of a fantastic year (1493 yards, 23 TDs), but there is no way that will be repeated. Given Moss’s attitude problems in Oakland, I am very afraid that if things do not go his way from the beginning the entire season may be in the toilet.
I needed to take a running back in the second, and those mentioned above, plus Maurice Jones-Drew were gone. I’m not a Laurence Maroney fan, and every potentially great back left had issues — Larry Johnson was one of the very best for years but was terrible last season, Jamal Lewis screwed me a few years ago, Brandon Jacobs can’t stay on the field, Michael Turner has never been tested as a starter, Willie Parker can’t find the endzone and has new competition from a rookie, and Reggie Bush catches the ball well but can’t seem to take it up the middle. I followed conventional wisdom and took Johnson, but I have no confidence in him.
In the third I was able to get my second starting running back, Reggie Bush. He is certainly not great, but this was one pick that I did not have to think very hard about.
In the fourth I would have considered an exceptional QB, but Brady, Manning, Romo, Brees, Anderson, and Palmer were all already gone. Those remaining were mediocre enough to wait for. If there were a really good RB left I would have jumped at the chance to fill my flex spot, but none of Kevin Smith, Selvin Young, Thomas Jones, Edgerrin James, or the others seemed worth it. It looked like the right time to fill my second receiver slot, and the highly rated ones still on the board were Anquan Boldin (contract dispute, bad attitude), Chad Johnson (same), Wes Welker (very good, but I already had a Patriots receiver), Marvin Harrison (old and recently injured), and Roy Williams (pretty good). Williams looks like the best choice, but I went with his teammate Calvin Johnson. Why? As a rookie last year Johnson had 90% of Williams’s yardage and scored 80% as many touchdowns. If he has the prototypical “leap” that second-year receivers are supposed to have, it would not surprise me if the totals were reversed this season.
In the fifth I was able to fill my flex spot with one of few remaining definite starters at RB – Matt Forte. He is young and untested, but he has to be better than Cedric Benson, right?
At this point I realized a fairly significant blunder — both of my WRs had the same bye week. I would have liked to take a top-tier TE or perhaps a backup RB in the sixth round, but I decided I needed to shore up my WR depth for that week. I passed on picking up one of the revitalized Jets receivers to take Roddy White, a decision that I may well rue. To put up 1200 yards on such an atrocious team as the Falcons were last year you have to good, right?
With my RB/WR house in order, I took a talented but underused TE in the seventh: Vernon Davis. In the eighth I got my second WR for week 4, Santana Moss. With Jason Campbell back under center, I think he should have a very good year. The selection of quality QBs was looking awfully thin by the 9th, so I invested in the sometimes good Jake Delhomme.
At this point I had to attend to another matter, so the autopicker selected the Pittsburgh defense, kicker Adam Vinatieri, tight end Owen Daniels, and quarterback Jason Campbell for me. I returned in time to snag a marginal journeyman WR, Darrell Jackson, and the handcuff to my questionable starting RB, Colby Smith.
Overall, I cannot say that I really like my team, but there are few places where I wish I had made a different decision. I would say my best pick was Matt Forte in the 5th; he has tremendous potential for a player taken that late. Of course, he may also turn out to be a dud. My worst pick was Calvin Johnson in the 4th, not because it was too early for him, but because of the way it tied my hands later in the draft.
As for the other teams: Best pick by Manzo was RB Ray Rice in the 10th. The way McGahee is playing, Rice has a good chance of being the starter before the season is over. Worst pick by Manzo was kicker Nick Folk in the 9th. Best pick by Dave was WR Muhsin Muhammad in the 14th. Now that he has escaped “where wide receivers go to die”, he may have a surprising season. Worst pick by Dave was WR DeSean Jackson in the 7th. He won’t be getting many reps on offense this year unless Curtis’s injury drags on longer than expected or he really shows up Reggie Brown. Best pick by Regina was RB Brian Westbrook in the 1st over unhappy and unpracticed Steven Jackson. Worst pick by Regina was kicker Rob Bironas in the 12th. Best pick by Andy was WR Chris Chambers in the 7th, who should enjoy a renaissance in his first full year as a Charger. Worst pick by Andy was QB Marc Bulger in the 8th. I am very suspicious of Bulger, and Andy already had a good QB. Best pick by Lisa was QB Kurt Warner in the 13th. If he can keep his hold on the starting job, he should be a very nice backup to Brady for her. Worst pick by Lisa was Anquan Boldin in the 4th. I don’t trust a guy who so hates his team and coach. Best pick by Mark was Marion Barber in the 1st (damn you!). Worst pick by Mark was RB Kevin Smith in the 4th. Denver coach Mike Shanahan never seems to keep a starting RB for more than a few games. Best pick by Kevin was WR Patrick Crayton in the 10th. Worst pick by Kevin was Rudi Johnson in the 6th. I don’t know if he’ll even be a Bengal for very long. Best pick by Ryan was RB Ahmad Bradshaw in the 10th. He will get carries, and starter Jacobs has been injured frequently. Worst pick by Ryan was RB Ronnie Brown in the 7th, although it will look like genius if Ricky Williams can’t stay off the reefer. Best pick by Marr was RB Jerious Norwood in the 11th. Atlanta’s new coach should be more willing to use him than slimy Bobby Petrino. Worst pick by Marr was the New York Giants in the 10th, which will be anemic without Strahan or Umenyiora. Best pick by Kurt was RB Darren McFadden in the 4th. He had many worst picks, and seemed not to care at times.
The second league this year is one in which you can keep players on your roster at the end of the season by forfeiting a draft pick from the round before where he was taken in the previous year. My ship finally came in, and I was given the 1st draft position out of 10. As a result, I got a team that I feel very good about for this year and the next several. I started by spurning the player likely to put up the most points this year, RB LaDanian Tomlinson, in favor of the much younger RB Adrian Peterson. He should be very good this year and, while nothing is guaranteed in football, has a chance to continue dominating for much of the next decade. During the rest of the draft I took RB Maurice Jones-Drew, WR Marques Colston, WR Santonio Holmes, QB Carson Palmer, RB Rashard Mendenhall, TE Dallas Clark, RB Chester Taylor, RB Ray Rice, WR Patrick Crayton, RB Ahmad Bradshaw, QB Philip Rivers, WR DeSean Jackson, TE Tony Scheffler, WR Sidney Rice, the Arizona defense, RB Andre Hall, and kicker Jeff Reed. That’s an average of 24.9 years old for my likely starters (excluding the kicker), and most of my backups are below that threshold. In spite of drafting for future years, I think I got a very good team for this year. My best pick would be young star WR Santonio Holmes in the 4th. My worst pick was probably Rashard Mendenhall in the 6th. He is going to be a good player in this league, but I took him too early. What is worse is that I could have safely made him my 7th round pick and thus given up less to keep him next year, but did not think of this consequence of picking on the turn.
By the way, there are players and other people who will say that fantasy football is ruining the sport. I could not disagree more. While I was a fan of the Eagles for some time before I started participating in fantasy, I am now familiar with the skill players on most teams, and will watch and care about the full slate of games that I can get live every week. What amazes me is that fantasy mostly appeals to people who are both sports fans and nerds, a group that I would expect to be very small. In contrast, the game is actually ridiculously popular.