The Blogg

The Cardinals, seriously? I am disappointed in the Falcons. What a game Chargers-Colts was through regulation. Darren Sproles was fantastic. Manning’s TD pass to Wayne when the cornerback was not expecting a snap and did not start moving until after the receiver was already past him was sweet, in Gregg Easterbrook parlance. The last five minutes were full of all the drama you could want from the playoffs. After Indy with the lead gets a good stop, San Diego’s punter somehow booms a 50-yard kick that drops out of bounds at the 1-yard line. All Indianapolis needs is a couple of first downs to end the game, and they get a great 6 yards on their first play. It looks like the game might be over until the offensive line inexplicably lets a rusher come free off the edge to sack Manning back at the 1. No problem; Indianapolis’s punter makes his own impressive play with a 60-yarder from the back of his own endzone. San Diego marches down the field convincingly, but is forced to kick the tying field goal when they get to 3rd down with no timeouts and the clock ticking.

Then we get to overtime, and the game loses all of its greatness. San Diego wins the toss. They mount a drive, the critical play of which is a stupid facemask penalty against Indianapolis, and score the winning points. I have been meaning to write about the NFL’s overtime rules ever since the Eagles-Bengals debacle, and this provides a good opportunity to do so. During the final minutes of the regulation when it became clear that overtime was likely, Madden and Michaels mentioned a conversation they had with Indianapolis coach Tony Dungy in which he claimed to like the current overtime rules. The broadcasters agreed with him, but I strongly disagree.

I understand and appreciate that football is a one-chance sport, and I like that you cannot take a game off like a baseball, basketball, or ice hockey team. The fact that every game matters is what keeps me glued to the television, but sudden-death takes this a bit too far. According to this article (and I’ve seen the same stats elsewhere), from 1974-2003 the team that won the overtime coin toss won the game 52% of the time, while the team that lost the coin toss won the game only 44% of the time. (The remaining games resulted in ties.) Clearly, the coin toss is not the most important factor in who wins the game. It is equally clear, however, that it is a significant factor. Do you really want any game, especially a playoff one, decided partially by the flip of a coin?

I can think of several possible sets of overtime rules, each with their own advantages and disadvantages:

1. One 15-minute period. If either team scores, it immediately wins. Otherwise, the game is ruled a tie.
2. Infinite 15-minute periods. If either team scores, it immediately wins.
3. Infinite 15-minute periods. At the end of any period if a team is ahead, it wins.
4. Infinite alternating possessions. At the end of any pair if a team is ahead, it wins.

System 1 is currently used by the NFL is the regular season. System 2 is used by the NFL in the playoffs. I believe that System 4 is used in college football, but because I do not follow the game I am not positive.

One reason to keep overtimes as short as possible is that tired players are more injury-prone, and longer games are risking the health of everyone on the field. This is an advantage for systems 1 and 2, and to a lesser extent 4.

The concept of a tie may be the most reasonable outcome for a game in which neither team has distinguished itself by playing significantly better than the other. In this case, awarding one team a win and the other a loss may indeed be the result of random circumstances. Of course, in a playoff game there must be a winner. System 1 has this advantage of accurately describing an even result as a tie.

However, a tie is not a satisfying results for fans, who make up the NFL’s all-important revenue stream. Systems 2, 3, and 4 have this advantage.

As I have already discussed, systems 3 and 4 have the advantage of making the outcome of the game completely dependent on what happens on the field (at least to the extent that this is possible).

Given all of these factors, and probably some others that I was considering when I wrote this in my mind a month ago but have forgotten, I am liking system 4 the best, with system 3 being almost as good. If I were implementing such a system I think I would drop special teams entirely and have each team start with a 1st and 10 on their opponent’s 20 yard line.

One other thing remains. A team that has won a game in overtime should not get the same advantage in the standings as a team that won in regulation. I would borrow and adapt the points system from the NHL, such that winning in regulation is worth 4 points, winning in overtime is worth 3, losing in overtime is worth 1, and losing in regulation is worth 0. The usual tie-breakers of record against common opponents, division rivals, etc could use these points just as they do win-loss-tie records.

On a different note, I do not understand how the Vikings had so much difficulty selling out tomorrow’s game. If what I have read is correct, they have sold out all of their regular-season games this year. Who would pay to go to one of those games but not a playoff game? I suppose there are season-ticket holders who are forced to pay for all 8 home regular-season games but not the playoffs, but should there not be much more demand for this game? Perhaps all the Minnesotans know how much their team is going to be dominated.

I wrote up until this point on Saturday night, but I’ll wait and post on Sunday after watching the other two wildcard games.

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Halfway through the Eagles game, it has been a good one. The stupid 3rd-and-1 interception burns and it would have been nice to see us get a better route to the sideline on the last play, but I am actually satisfied with the offense. Other than those two plays, the playcalling has been good and the execution has been about as good as you can expect against a great defense. (Did you see that series with Buckhalter in the backfield and Westbrook split out? That’s what I’m talking about!) I am more concerned with the defense, and not because of Peterson’s 40-yard TD run. It is going to happen occasionally when you rush everyone to try to stop him at the line. What bothers me is the third-and-longs we are giving up. Jackson’s big punt return was great, and even though it did not work I loved the fake reverse on the last kickoff return.

Great, great game. Until about 5 minutes left it could easily have gone either way. My vote for MVP of the game: David Akers. None of the players on offense or defense were spectacular, and we would not have won without those field goals. Late last year and earlier this year there were some serious questions about whether he could hit from outside 40 yards, but with the benefit of the dome he had no problem even from 50. Can he do the same in his nemesis, Giants stadium?

Watching the Ravens play with Lorenzo Neal, LeRon McClain, Willis McGahee, and Ray Rice made me think of something I would love to see the Eagles do next week. For one series come out in a very old-school, power rush formation and go no-huddle to keep the defense confused. Specifically, McNabb is under center, Buckhalter lines up 4 yards behind Thomas and Klecko 4 yards behind Runyan, Westbrook is 8 yards behind McNabb, and Jackson and Curtis are split wide. I can think of half a dozen good plays that could be run out of this set depending on down, distance, and defensive alignment. Additionally, Westbrook and Buckhalter could motion to the slots.

1. The linemen push forward, Buckhalter and Klecko run through the gaps between the center and guards, Westbrook takes the handoff from McNabb and follows whichever up-back has made a bigger hole.
2. Buckhalter and Klecko run to the same side, Westbrook takes the handoff and runs a stretch play to that side.
3. Buckhalter and Klecko run to the same side, Westbrook takes the handoff, starts to that side, and cuts back the other way.
4. Both receivers run fly routes, all backs stay in pass protection, if both receivers are well-covered, McNabb takes it as a draw up the middle.
5. Runyan and Cole let their man through, while Klecko runs up beside Runyan. Buckhalter picks up whichever defender is the biggest danger to McNabb, who throws a screen to Westbrook behind two linemen and a fullback.
6. One receiver runs a post, the other a slant. Two of the backs stay in to block while a third one leaks out into the flat for a pass.