The Blogg

December 14, 2009

Another Great Sunday

Filed under: Sports — chadhogg @ 12:02 am

Even Michaluk has to have enjoyed this game, which was always in reach for both teams. There was a lot to like for the Eagles: the offensive line was dominant, McCoy and Weaver made good use of the holes available, Jackson was uncoverable as usual, and Brown, Avant, and Celek chipped in as needed. McNabb had two miscues, but otherwise was very solid, and Vick did what we needed. The return game was very good. The run defense was good enough against a monster of a back. But there were also some scary things. The coverage teams were fairly bad, and the secondary was terrible. The safeties could not make tackles and the corners had Giants receivers behind them half a dozen times and were saved only by bad throws and/or butterfingers. Superstar Trent Cole was an absolute idiot throwing punches in the last seconds of the game. If he gets suspended for week 16 or part of the playoffs that act may well cost the season.

Can you imagine if the team had kept Dawkins? Sure he is not much in coverage anymore, but Sean Jones never has been. Dawkins would be making those tackles, and threatening to force a fumble while he was at it. Speaking of safeties, think about this. Favre, Manning (Peyton), and Brees have certainly made a good case for being the league MVP. But I tend to think of the most valuable player as being one whom the team simply cannot play without. This year the Steelers are 4-0 in games where Polamalu played more than one series and 2-7 otherwise, including losses against some very bad teams. He is not responsible for the team’s offensive collapse, but he alone makes the difference between that being probably the best defense in the league and being far below average. If there were a least valuable player award I would call it similarly – a player who may be very good but who is not really needed by their team. This year, our own Brian Westbrook might qualify, as the offense has very smoothly moved on without him.

In other sports, I cannot understand how poorly the Flyers have played throughout the last month. I think their goaltending is a bit worse than last year, but that has not been the problem. Basically the same offensive players that were among the best teams last year are simply incapable of scoring goals. The coaching change does not seem to have made a difference, so what is going to get this turned around?

December 11, 2009

Climategate Musings

Filed under: Uncategorized — chadhogg @ 2:40 am

If you are unaware, a few weeks ago someone hacked into the servers of a climatologist research group and released emails and other documents that have created quite a stir. You can read about it on wikipedia or a news article. In light of the current summit in Copenhagen, I thought it was time to put down a few thoughts inspired by the recent events and general anthropogenic global warming controversy.

1: I am glad that my research is of no particular interest to more than a few dozen people and will certainly not be driving any governmental policy decisions. I can see plenty of analogues to the controversial e-mails in my own archives. Phil Jones wrote about a “trick” to “hide” a data anomaly. I’ve gone back and forth with my co-authors about the best way to present data; a logarithmic scale is much more informative, but they insisted that a linear scale was necessary for people just glancing through to realize how impressive the results were. Michael Mann urged colleagues to stop publishing at a journal that he believed was publishing politically-motivated articles. Someone I work with warned others in a specific research community when a new journal in that field was created with an editorial board full of people who had never published work in that field in any well-known venue. I would not care to have to explain myself to raging hordes convinced I was guilty of fraud.

2: Although I do not find much damning evidence in the leaked documents, some of the other things I have read about are disturbing. In a relatively unimportant field like mine it would be wrong to refuse to provide my data and methods to anyone who asked. The credibility of any result is directly proportional to the ability of others to reproduce it. In a field that will shape society for the next decade, it is downright immoral to hold back this information for intellectual property reasons. (For the record, I know of two researchers unaffiliated with me who are using my code. Feel free to download ch-htn-tools-1.0.tar.gz if you would like.)

3: It is probably the best that can be done under the circumstances, but it seems that most of what climatologists do is only science by a very broad definition. With data that goes back half a century, proxy data that allows us to guess at much older values but depends on its own set of questionable assumptions, and an extremely complex system that cannot be duplicated and that usually operates on a scale of millennia, testing hypotheses becomes rather difficult. If a theory has no predictive power that can be validated, then it is of limited use. (My own work and much computer science research can similarly be derided as unscientific. In my world the really interesting thing is the invention of a way to solve a problem, and then we tack on experimental studies of that methodology to add a veneer of sciency-ness.)

4: This is but one of many examples, but it is truly amazing how often people believe that they are more qualified than experts to have an opinion on a topic. I have an opinion on most everything (as you readers know), but I do not assume myself to be superior to those who actually know what they are talking about. Climate change is indeed up for debate, as is just about anything else. But that does not mean it is a matter of opinion, or that what is true for me might not be true for you. You can believe that scientists are wrong, or are falsifying global warming to usher in a worldwide fascist regime, or secretly know that vaccines cause autism but are bribed into lying by pharmaceutical companies. But unless you can offer actual evidence supporting one of those theories, it is not clear to me why anyone should care what you believe about it.

5: As per #4, you should not care what I think about climate change since I am far from an expert on the subject, but I will tell you anyway. If the majority of experts in the field believe that global temperatures are rising and that carbon dioxide emissions are the primary cause (they do), then I do too. The fact that it seems colder where I am than last year is not strong enough evidence to discredit their years of work, nor is the fact that the climate has (very slowly) changed in the past without human intervention. This does not mean that I think the joint statement from the IPCC has it all figured out; just that they have come to the most reasonable conclusion based on the available data. What, if any, policy changes should be enacted is an entirely different and unscientific question. That leads to my next thought.

6: If, as seems to be the consensus, we are already in a bad position and getting worse everyday, it is going to require some serious sacrifices to avert disaster. In my (non-expert) opinion, the kind of policies that would be necessary to reverse such a trend would never be accepted. There is simply no way that developing countries will agree not to use early industrial technology unless we either find a reasonably priced alternative energy source (looks unlikely in the near future), give them absolutely enormous sums of money (not going to happen), or bomb them into extinction (not exactly a positive outcome). First-world countries should be able to hold the line on emissions relatively painlessly, but making significant cuts will be impossible without most Americans giving up luxuries they have become accustomed to, and I do not see the political will to do so. If the climatologists are correct, the next two decades are going to be very interesting times.

7: Finally, I do not think the leaked CRU documents reveal any egregious ethical violations. But suppose you believed firmly and completely that the world as you knew it was going to be destroyed unless you did something. Would you be willing to commit fraud if necessary to avert this disaster? I have to think the answer is yes. Replace fraud with any other moral, legal, or ethical lapse and I think the answer remains the same. Surety can be rather frightening. I was reading somewhere else (sorry, I no longer recall where, nor looked for proof) that a scientist was discouraged from doing some certain research because it might produce results that contradict the consensus on global warming and that to risk this would be immoral. What kind of nonsense is that? But it makes perfect sense if you already know that you are right, which is an entirely unscientific mindset.

Counting Calories

Filed under: Personal — chadhogg @ 12:03 am

I have a terrible diet, consisting of fast food, meat, grease, carbohydrates, and so forth. Thus, I have always assumed that I must be eating far more than the 2000 calories per day that is the lower bound of the FDA’s recommended daily allowance and am saved from extreme obesity through a high metabolism. Last month, I set out to test this theory by recording everything I consumed while maintaining my usual eating habits. I took a break from this for a while because I was sick and then forgot about it, but started again last week. Any short period of time is not ideal for drawing large conclusions from because I tend to eat the same thing for a week at a time, but the data that I collected is in the table below.

I was not concerned with making exact measurements, but think my estimates should be close enough. For foods eaten in the home I was able to take nutrition information directly from the labels, and for food from chain restaurants it was available on their websites. When I had no reliable source I estimated from looking at reports of similar items on the web and marked these estimates with an asterisk.

Day Amount Food Calories
2009-11-13 1 Pizza Hut Pepperoni Italia 6 Inch Pizza 610
2009-11-13 24 oz Minute Maid Lite Lemonade 10
2009-11-13 1 can Campbell’s Chicken Noodle Soup 180
2009-11-13 15 Reduced Fat Ritz Crackers 210
2009-11-13 12 oz Lipton Brisk Iced Tea 80
2009-11-13 1 Lake Champlain Peanut Butter Leaf 60
2009-11-13 4 oz Sour Cream & Onion Chex Mix 120
2009-11-14 1 Peanut Butter & Jelly Sandwich 375
2009-11-14 12 oz Turkey Hill Orange Tea 165
2009-11-14 1 Extra Crispy KFC Leg & Thigh 520
2009-11-14 1 KFC Potato Wedges 260
2009-11-14 1 KFC Biscuit 180
2009-11-14 20 oz Tropicana Pink Lemonade 250
2009-11-15 1 Buttered Thomas’ English Muffin 170
2009-11-15 1 Corned Beef, Swiss, & Pickle Sandwich 330
2009-11-15 16 oz Turkey Hill Orange Tea 220
2009-11-15 15 Fresh Blueberries 15
2009-11-15 2 Breadsticks 250*
2009-11-15 12 oz Ham Pot Pie Soup 600*
2009-11-15 4 Potato & Roasted Garlic Ravioli 450*
2009-11-15 1/2 slice Peanut Butter Cheesecake 150*
2009-11-15 30 oz Brewed Iced Tea 0
2009-11-16 15 Fresh Blueberries 15
2009-11-16 24 oz Turkey Hill Orange Tea 110
2009-11-16 1 Corned Beef, Swiss, & Pickle Sandwich 330
2009-11-16 30 White Corn Tortilla Chips 300
2009-11-16 1/10 batch Taco Dip 315
2009-11-17 1 Buttered Thomas’ English Muffin 170
2009-11-17 1 Corned Beef, Swiss, & Pickle Sandwich 330
2009-11-17 1/10 batch Taco Dip 315
2009-11-17 1 Baked Potato 280
2009-11-17 32 oz Turkey Hill Orange Tea 440
2009-11-30 2/3 Stromboli 1100
2009-11-30 1 cup Chex Mix 135
2009-11-30 24 oz Arizona Sweet Tea 270
2009-11-30 1 Lake Champlain Peanut Butter Leaf 60
2009-12-01 1 Ham, Salami, Pepperoni, & Provolone Sandwich 600
2009-12-01 12 oz Arizona Sweet Tea 135
2009-12-01 16 oz Apple Cider 220
2009-12-01 1/2 Tombstone Cheese Pizza with added Pepperoni 850
2009-12-02 20 Seedless Red Grapes 40
2009-12-02 1 cup Chex Mix 135
2009-12-02 24 oz Turkey Hill Orange Tea 330
2009-12-02 1 Arby’s Medium Roast Beef Sandwich 450
2009-12-02 2 Arby’s Potato Cakes 260
2009-12-02 1 Double Cheeseburger 650
2009-12-03 24 oz Turkey Hill Orange Tea 330
2009-12-03 1 Wendy’s Single Baconator 560
2009-12-03 5 Wendy’s Chicken Nuggets 235
2009-12-03 1 Small Vince’s Cheesesteak 750*
2009-12-03 16 oz Nestea Iced Tea 180
2009-12-04 1 Peanut-Buttered English Muffin 330
2009-12-04 1 Ham, Salami, Swiss, & Tomato Sandwich 450
2009-12-04 1 cup Chex Mix 135
2009-12-04 20 Seedless Red Grapes 40
2009-12-04 12 oz Apple Cider 165
2009-12-04 8 oz Turkey Hill Orange Tea 110
2009-12-05 1 Ham, Swiss, & Tomato Sandwich 380
2009-12-05 1 Grilled Country Sausage 450
2009-12-05 1 Buttered Baked Potato 320
2009-12-05 2 cups Chex Mix 270
2009-12-05 24 oz Apple Cider 330
2009-12-06 1 cup Chex Mix 135
2009-12-06 1 Peanut Buttered English Muffin 330
2009-12-06 8 Tyson Frozen Chicken Nuggets 430
2009-12-06 20 Giant Frozen French Fries 140
2009-12-06 3 tbsp Heinz Ketchup 45
2009-12-06 40 Martin’s Kettle Cook’d Potato Chips 300
2009-12-06 3 tbsp Heluva Good French Onion Dip 90
2009-12-06 24 oz Turkey Hill Orange Tea 330
2009-12-07 1 Ham & Swiss Sandwich 380
2009-12-07 2 cups Chicken & Rice Casserole 500
2009-12-07 40 Martin’s Kettle Cook’d Potato Chips 300
2009-12-07 3 tbsp Heluva Good French Onion Dip 90
2009-12-07 24 oz Turkey Hill Orange Tea 330
2009-12-07 20 Fresh Blueberries 20
2009-12-08 1 6″ Sausage Parmigiana Sandwich 800*
2009-12-08 2 cups Chicken & Rice Casserole 500
2009-12-08 40 Martin’s Kettle Cook’d Potato Chips 300
2009-12-08 5 tbsp Heluva Good French Onion Dip 150
2009-12-08 24 oz Apple Cider 300

I was quite surprised to find that of the 14 days for which I kept records, I only exceeded 2000 calories 3 times. On an average day in that time span I consumed only 1682 calories, and if I drank water instead of sugary beverages that would drop below 1500. This is not a validation of my eating habits; I do not drink nearly enough fluids, most of what I eat is filled with salt and preservatives, and I am sure a larger fraction of my calories come from fat than any nutritionist would approve of.

Still, it does make me wonder what a person would have to eat in order to hit the 2500 calorie upper bound. I could not eat any more than I already do, so I would need to start replacing other foods with pure fat or start pouring extra sugar into my drinks. I am sure a person who is much larger than me would be able to eat significantly more before feeling full, but these caloric guidelines are for average, healthy people and I myself am overweight. I also wonder how many calories a person gets when seriously dieting. If my cheeseburgers and fried chicken were replaced with a salad, I would think you could drop this average down to around 1000 calories per day.

December 8, 2009

Book Review: Native Son

Filed under: Books — chadhogg @ 1:06 am

It was not my specific intention to read two major discussions of African-American life and Communism in the 1930s, but it has been a happy coincidence. Native Son is much more gripping than all but the first chapter of Invisible Man, with a sense of pacing and action befitting a mass-market thriller. Although I like to think that I have much more in common with the intellectual, naive Invisible Man, Wright’s prose makes me identify much more closely with the rage-filled Native Son. My only complaint against Wright is that he needs to learn to “show, don’t tell”. The first part of the book is filled with introspection about the protagonist’s thought processes that could be inferred from a more expository approach, and the last section contains an overly long summation a la “This Is John Galt Speaking” (although much better written).

November 23, 2009

What A Game

Filed under: Sports — chadhogg @ 12:01 am

Considering the schedule the Eagles have faced getting to 6-4 is not something to get too excited about, but tonight’s game was easily the best this season. Shellacking the Giants was fun, but showing that we could win a close game and not rely on big play after big play is more meaningful. I have been critical of the coaching staff plenty of times, but they deserve a lot of praise for tonight. On offense they got serious about running the ball, and it opened up the field for McNabb’s receivers. On defense, with the back seven in tatters they aggressively attacked the line of scrimmage rather than trying to sit in coverage. This meant giving up two big plays, but otherwise shutting down the running game and making Cutler rush his throws to receivers that we could not have covered anyway. I will take that trade-off any day.

A good scheme is worthless by itself, but the players executed well also. I have also been very critical of the offensive line, but they were outstanding in opening up holes for McCoy and giving McNabb a chance to let routes develop. McNabb actually threw to his guys instead of around them, and the rest of the skill players did what they do week in and week out. Three turnovers are a serious problem, but on the drives that did not end that way the offense was moving fairly effortlessly. The defense made no game-changing plays, no turnovers or sacks that I noticed. But they ensured that the Bears offense would have to run through a struggling Cutler and applied enough pressure to keep him off balance all night long. The scary part: I thought the team played a great all-around game, yet they still only barely beat a very average team. What is it going to take if we make it to the playoffs and face New Orleans or Minnesota?

Elsewhere in the NFL it was also a crazy day, with lots of unexpectedly competitive contests. Unfortunately, the other three games I cared about all went the wrong way in the last minutes: Pittsburgh lost, Dallas won, and the Giants won. Pittsburgh losing to Kansas City is a bit like Philadelphia’s loss to Oakland a few weeks ago, something that should never have happened. Even with Cincinnati losing to another terrible team this week, the Steelers are not going to win their division without a lot of luck. If Roethlisberger is seriously injured and Polamalu stays out more than another game or two you can forget about them pulling a wildcard spot. How about that Matthew Stafford coming back to throw a touchdown pass on the untimed last play while obviously in some serious pain?

I’ve been thoroughly enjoying the NFL RedZone channel when there is not a game I especially care about going on. Being able to follow the storyline and drama of a single game and understanding the context for each play is nice, but not having commercial breaks every five minutes is so nice and this way I get a general idea of what has happened throughout the league. I was able to watch those essential last minutes of all three of the aforementioned close games even though they were basically simultaneous.

EDIT: Last night I forgot about the sack when Trent Cole lined up like the middle linebacker and flew through the “A” gap to drop Cutler for a significant loss. Also, I believe the game ended on an interception when an incompletion would have been just as good.

November 17, 2009

Book Review: Invisble Man

Filed under: Books — chadhogg @ 1:00 pm

Ellison hits you hard from the beginning, with one of the most cruel and inhumane scenes you will probably ever read about in the first chapter and a story of incest (with strong implication of another case) in the second. From there the book slows down substantially until the end, but is never boring. Throughout it illustrates both overt racism and the more interesting seemingly benign form that actually drives much of the narrator’s life. It would be a mistake, however, to think that the message of the novel is solely about race relations; Ellison makes it clear that most people are “invisible” to the majority of people who look at them, and that many are willfully blind as well.

I find the title and main theme of the book to be a bit of a misnomer. The narrator calls himself “invisible” as he comes to realize that everyone sees him as a token black man, a useful tool, and so forth rather than seeing the man himself with all of his complexities. It seems more that something blocks their view of him than that people see past him to the background, but this does not diminish the power of the narrative. I would not list Invisible Man among my favorites, but it was most certainly worth the read.

October 30, 2009

Car Shopping Conclusion

Filed under: Personal — chadhogg @ 3:59 pm

Yesterday I visited at least half a dozen dealerships and used car lots in the early afternoon, finding essentially the same thing that I had seen in online inventories. (That is, vehicles approaching the end of their first decade with nearly 100,000 miles on them and prices in the $6000 – $7000 range.) I did not see anything that I really wanted to buy at that price, but a few that I felt I could live with. The salespersons at each of these businesses were friendly and helpful, but not at all controlling. My next stop was at Alexander Kia on Lycoming Creek Road in Williamsport, where a salesman showed me a 2005 Kia Optima LX with 38,000 miles on it that would have the remainder of the factory warranty transferred to the new owner. While a little larger than I was hoping for, it had my required features (four doors, automatic transmission, cruise control, air conditioning) and appeared to be in excellent condition. It had just arrived, so he did not have a price. I expected that it would be too expensive for me, but agreed to wait while he and his manager worked up a price.

At this point he started getting pushy, making me wait a long time, trying to turn the interest that I expressed into a declaration that I would buy it, trying to get me to say that my $6000 budget was just what I wanted to finance in addition to a $2000 down payment, getting permission to run a credit check and work up some financing numbers even though I was not nearly that far along in my decision, etc. When he came back with a price of $7988 I responded that it sounded like a good deal but that I was looking for something a bit older, more heavily used, and thus lower priced.

Then the manager came over and started the real high-pressure job: “What, you don’t like my cars?”. After I explained that I did but they were out of my price range and that I might be back if I found nothing cheaper at his competitors, “I don’t have any competitors”. I very quickly became annoyed with his attempts to strong-arm me into taking a test drive and doing whatever he could to keep me there, and was ready to leave when he asked me what I wanted to spend, then if I would buy that day if he could get the price down to $6000. The possibility of getting a vehicle with much less wear and tear than those I had been considering at that price was enough to keep me there, and once he confirmed that price I took it for a test drive, called my wife to talk it over, and decided to purchase it in spite of the borderline sleazy tactics.

After a bit of research they determined that the vehicle did not have a 10 year / 100,000 mile warranty, but only 5 years / 50,000 miles, which would end on January 3, 2010. This was not a bait-and-switch; I actually believe that they had been sincere about the warranty the entire time. This was disappointing, but did not change the fact that I would be getting the car at a very nice price. (While on the phone with Rachel I had asked her to run it through the Kelley Blue Book, which gave a suggested retail price of $7415 for one in excellent condition.) I tested all of the features I could think of during the test drive and glanced over the engine compartment afterwards. Not that I would really know what to look for, but it was clean and lacking any fluids that might have been leaked during the drive. Based on that and the immaculate body and interior, I think it is in at least close to excellent condition.

I am very satisfied with the decision I made to buy the car, but will probably regret this next decision that I made. It was the warranty that attracted me to the vehicle in the first place, after my last car left me as a nearly worthless hunk of scrap metal. Knowing that the factory warranty would be expiring soon, they offered me an additional 4 year / 100,000 mile warranty for $1800, and I chose to purchase it. I find extended warranties on most products to be a waste of money, and spending nearly a third of the value of something to insure it is probably over the top. Still, I am glad to know that if anything happens to it in the next four years I will have no further costs.

October 28, 2009

The Allure Of Insurance Fraud; Car Shopping

Filed under: Personal — chadhogg @ 11:01 am

More than pretty much any other crime, I can see why people would be tempted to commit insurance fraud. First, you can convince yourself that there is no real victim here, just a faceless corporation. You might even think of it as striking a blow for mankind against The Man, ignoring the fact that premiums will rise as necessary to ensure that the company makes a profit. Second, it makes a big difference; several thousand dollars when you need it is nothing to sneeze at. Third, it is easy to see your situation as unjust. If I had been involved in a collision I would have received $3000 – $4000 for my vehicle in spite of any engine troubles that may have been lurking beneath the surface. Instead, I got $150 plus the cost of towing from a salvage yard, and had to pay $100 of that to the mechanic who determined what was wrong with it.

I asked for car-buying advice in my last post and thank you for some good comments. Several people suggested buying a new car, so I looked into it a bit further. There are a number of new vehicle models with prices “from” around $10,000, such as the Chevrolet Aveo, Kia Rio, Hyundai Accent, Nissan Versa, and Toyota Yaris. However, when they call these bare-bones models, they aren’t kidding. I do not require a lot of luxury features, but an automatic transmission, cruise control, and air conditioning are not optional for me. Because you cannot generally pick single options but must select “trim levels”, none of these models can actually be purchased with these features for under $14,000. At that price, I think I will take my chances with a used vehicle in the $5000 – $7000 range.

I last bought a car in 2005, and at the time got a vehicle that was 4 years old and had 80,000 miles and typical features for $5000. With the economy in a slump and the automobile market even worse, it seems to me that I should easily be able to find a similar deal now. Unfortunately, this is not the case. There are very few 2004-2006 models for sale around here, which I suppose makes sense. The only people who are going to be selling a 4 year old car in good condition are the kind who will be dealing in luxury models, not economy compacts. So, I’ve been expanding my search to vehicles with a few more years, a few more tens of thousands of miles, $1000 higher prices.

A few days ago I spent the afternoon calling about all of the advertisements from our local newspaper and web inventories that were close to these parameters. I surprising number had already been sold, and many others had manual transmissions or no cruise control. This left a 2005 Suzuki Verona S (82,000 miles, $5800), a 2004 Dodge Stratus (59,000 miles, $6995), a 2003 Chrysler PT Cruiser GT (119,000 miles, $5495), a 2003 Ford Focus LX (98,000 miles, $4995), and a 2004 Hyundai Sonata (90,000 miles, $4950). The Sonata looks like the best deal, but is larger than I would like. The Suzuki also appears good but does not get positive reviews for reliability. While more expensive than I would like, the Stratus is intriguing. Of course, all of these vehicles may have been sold by now. Rachel took tomorrow off work so we can drive around from lot to lot and hopefully find something acceptable.

October 21, 2009

Car Trouble Update

Filed under: Personal — chadhogg @ 1:50 pm

Fitzpatrick & Lambert called to inform me that my #4 piston and wrist pin are broken and that repairing the engine would not be economical. They estimated that a salvage yard would give me a few hundred dollars at most for the body. Being a one-car household will work for a week or two, but ultimately I need to be able to go to the Lehigh Valley most weeks and am applying for jobs that will require a serious commute. I truly despise car shopping, but it looks like I have no choice.

Why do I hate buying automobiles? There are so many better things you could spend that kind of money on, and when you consider that your substantial investment may be off to the junkyard itself in a months I become practically ill. I am not a haggler by nature and look with suspicion on anyone who will not publicly advertise their real price. Sales pitches seem to focus on the most irrelevant details, such as paint color and leather upholstery rather than what actually matters.

So, I leave the task to you, knowledgeable denizens of the Internet. I need to find a vehicle that I can purchase for somewhere in the ballpark of $5000. I will need financing (ugh, that also makes me sick). I should be able to feel reasonably confident that it will not fall apart within the next few years, and that it will be safe. It should get good gas mileage. It will need to have an automatic transmission, and preferably will not be overly large.

In your opinions, what are the most reliable makes/models of pre-owned vehicles? Do you think it is worth it to go into debt further to buy a low-end new car and have a warranty? Is there anything that uses alternate fuel sources that is close enough to my price range to consider? Any thoughts that you have would be greatly appreciated.

October 18, 2009

Car Troubles

Filed under: Personal — chadhogg @ 9:54 pm

Several weeks (months?) ago while on my weekly drive to Bethlehem I noticed that the radar detectors Penn-DOT had set up along the road reported my speed at 2 miles/hour slower than my speedometer. I did not think much of this since that sounds well within the range of error of a stationary radar device, but later checked the speed reported by my GPS-based navigation aid, which also agreed with the external data. I would not expect the GPS data to be highly accurate in determining the exact location of the vehicle at any instant in time, but it should be nearly perfect in measuring displacement over time with a constant speed. I began thinking about how a speedometer would operate and why it’s data might be inaccurate.

It made sense to me that the vehicle would calculate speed simply by multiplying the number of rotations per minute of the drive axle by the expected circumference of the tire (distance traveled per rotation), and then scaling to miles per hour. If this were so, reporting my speed at 103.2% of its actual value (65 m/h rather than 63 m/h) would be a result of it believing the circumference of my tire was 3.2% larger than actuality. I made a note to check the treads for wear, but promptly forgot about it.

A few days ago I noticed that my front driver’s side tire looked significantly flat, so I tested it and found a pressure of only 8 PSI. There is supposed to be a sticker on the inside of my driver’s door frame with recommended pressures, but I could not find one so I filled it to 30 PSI. The rear driver’s side tire was only inflated to 18 PSI, so I raised it as well. The passenger side tires were filled to 32 PSI and 29 PSI, confirming that 30 was around the correct value. I have no idea what caused the driver’s side tires to slowly deflate, but will be keeping a closer eye on them for a while.

On Friday I drove up to a hunting camp in Shunk, PA that my father is a member of to visit him and my uncle, enjoying my newly pressurized tires. I noticed no specific improvements in handling or performance, but the car ran exactly as expected for the entire hour-long drive. When I arrived at the cabin and began turning to park, the engine suddenly cut out, while all of the electrical systems remained operational. I attempted to restart it, but could not get the starter to turn over or even make a sound. I had not been intending to stay the night, but was at least stranded in a place with food, a bed, and friendly faces rather than by myself along one of the country roads with no cell reception on my way there.

In the light of the morning I tried starting the car again with the same results, and verified that the lights, radio, and windshield wipers were working at full power. Still, we cleaned the battery contacts a bit and jumped the battery. After this the starter would turn over but the engine never caught and sounded decidedly unwell while I continued to crank the starter. We visited the one local pseudo-garage but could find no one working. Fortunately, we were able to find a high ridge with cell reception and my Geico insurance covered the cost of a tow to the nearest Ford dealership, in Dushore. They expect to be able to look at it on Tuesday, at which point I will post an update about what is wrong.

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